Stop 1
1 Interstate migration has been remarkably stable for twenty years
Roughly 7.5 million people move from one U.S. state to another every year — about 2% of the population. The low point was 6.83 million in 2010, in the aftermath of the housing crash. The high point was 8.30 million in 2022, as remote work loosened the tie between where people lived and where they worked.
Stop 2
2 The South is absorbing the Northeast and Midwest's population
Add up net migration — people arriving minus people leaving — by region for every year since 2005, and the direction never changes. The South has gained a net 8.7 million people; the Northeast has lost 5.0 million and the Midwest 2.5 million. The West has been a net loser every year since 2021, shedding 148,000 people in 2024 alone.
Stop 3
3 Florida and Texas are the biggest winners; California and New York the biggest losers
Totaled over 2020–2024 (four survey years, since 2020 has no data), Florida gained a net 667,000 people and Texas gained 534,000. On the other side, California lost a net 1.27 million people and New York lost 835,000; the two losses are by far the largest, and third-place Illinois lost 438,000.
Stop 4
4 California to Texas is the single busiest route in the country
In 2024, an estimated 77,161 people (±9,059) moved from California to Texas — the largest flow between any two states, and about 31,700 more than the 45,447 who went the other way.
Stop 5
5 Most movers are chasing lower housing costs
Weight every move by how many people made it, and 53.5% of movers in 2024 relocated to a state with a lower home value index than the one they left. That share has held between 52% and 55% every year since 2005.
Stop 6
6 After inflation, the price gap between origin and destination is 46% wider than in 2019
The movers-weighted home-value gap (destination minus origin), in 2024 dollars, was −$13,366 in 2019. By 2021 it had more than doubled to −$28,822 as remote work spread, and at −$19,541 in 2024 it is still 46% wider than before the pandemic.
Stop 7
7 All eight fastest-rising housing markets gained people; six of the eight slowest lost them
Since 2005, and after adjusting for inflation (consumer prices rose 61% over that time), home values are up 81% in Idaho (191% before inflation), 73% in Utah and 70% in Montana, and all three (along with the other five states in the top eight) gained more people than they lost over the period. At the other end, prices fell after inflation in Illinois (−15%), Nevada (−13%), Connecticut (−12%) and Maryland (−11%): eight of the 50 places with data for both years are below their 2005 value. Illinois lost 1.8 million people net, though Nevada gained 447,000.
Stop 8
8 Puerto Rico's outflow spiked the year after Hurricane Maria
Hurricane Maria made landfall in September 2017. In the 2018 survey year that followed, 133,451 people left Puerto Rico for the mainland — up 37% from 97,488 the year before, and the highest Puerto Rico outflow in any of the 19 years of data.
Stop 9
9 Per resident, Vermont and South Carolina gain the most and New York loses the most
Raw counts favor big states, so I divide each state's net migration by its population. Over 2020–2024, Vermont gained 13.4 people per 1,000 residents each year, South Carolina 12.6 and Idaho 11.0. Florida, the biggest winner in raw numbers, ranks only 11th at 7.4 per 1,000, and Texas 17th at 4.4. At the bottom, New York lost 10.5 per 1,000, Illinois 8.6 and California 8.1, ranking 52nd, 51st and 50th of 52 places.
Stop 10
10 A broader price index agrees: movers land in cheaper states, but only slightly cheaper
Zillow measures only home prices. The Bureau of Economic Analysis's Regional Price Parities also cover rents, goods and services (the U.S. average is 100). By that measure, 54.3% of movers in 2024 went to a state with a lower price level than the one they left, close to the 53.5% found with home values, and the share has stayed between 52.2% and 57.2% since 2008. The gap is small: the average mover's destination was 0.9 index points cheaper in 2024 (1.7 in 2021), or 3.4 points on the housing component alone. The parities cover the 50 states and D.C. from 2008 on, and include North Dakota, which Zillow's state index lacks before 2009.
Stop 11
11 Home prices have outrun incomes: the typical state now costs 4.2 times its median household income
Price alone ignores what people earn. Dividing each state's home value by its median household income gives a price-to-income ratio. For the typical state it was 3.85 in 2005, fell to 3.20 in 2012, peaked at 4.44 in 2022, and was 4.17 in 2024. The spread is wide: Iowa was at 2.64 and Hawaii at 8.59 in 2024, with California at 7.65. Movers drift toward affordability, but only slightly: the average mover's destination had a ratio of 4.57 against 4.70 for where they came from, and 52.7% of movers went to a state with a lower ratio.
Stop 12
12 Mortgage rates, not prices, pushed monthly housing costs up by more than half since 2021
Price is not what people pay each month. Take the typical state's home value, assume 20% down and a 30-year fixed mortgage at that year's average Freddie Mac rate, and the principal-and-interest payment was $1,139 in 2021 (in 2024 dollars) and $1,751 in 2024, up 54%. The average rate rose from 2.96% to 6.72%; at the 2021 rate, the 2024 price would have cost about $1,135 a month. That payment is now 25.9% of the typical state's median household income, up from 16.6% in 2021. Typical rent was $1,409 in 2024. Zillow publishes no state-level rent series, so rent here is the average of each state's metro areas, from 2015 on.
Stop 13 — final stop
13 Income moves with people: Florida gained $20.6 billion of income in a year, nearly four times Texas
Census counts people; the IRS also records what they earn. In its 2022–23 migration file, 6.6 million people changed states, taking $335 billion of adjusted gross income (AGI) with them. Florida and Texas each gained about 112,000 people, yet Florida's net gain was $20.6 billion against Texas's $5.5 billion: the average return moving into Florida reported $122,539 of AGI, against $76,134 on the average return leaving Florida. California lost $11.9 billion and New York $9.9 billion. The IRS counts tax returns, so its totals differ from the Census survey's.
Notes
About the data
Every number above comes from one migration table, data/processed/state_migration_cost_panel.csv,
built by data/prepare_data.py, plus supplementary tables built by data/prepare_context.py. The checks in
data/validate.py recompute each figure quoted in this report from that file and the supplementary tables
beside it.
Where the data comes from
- Migration: U.S. Census Bureau, State-to-State Migration Flows, American Community Survey 1-year estimates, 2005–2024. The Census Bureau released no 1-year estimates for 2020, so that year is missing: 19 survey years, and charts connect 2019 straight to 2021.
- Home values: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), state level, all homes, smoothed and seasonally adjusted, monthly. I average the twelve months of each calendar year to get one value per state per year.
- Population: Census Population Estimates (July 1), three vintages: 2000–2010 intercensal (2005–09), Vintage 2019 (2010–19) and Vintage 2024 (2020–24).
- Income: Census CPS ASEC Historical Table H-8, median household income by state, current dollars. Puerto Rico is not covered.
- Price levels: BEA Regional Price Parities (all items and housing), 50 states and D.C., 2008–2024.
- Inflation: annual-average CPI-U (all items, U.S. city average) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, as tabulated by the Minneapolis Fed.
- Mortgage rates: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, weekly 30-year fixed rate, averaged by calendar year.
- Rent: Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), 2015 on. Zillow publishes no state-level series, so each state's value is the plain average of its metro areas' annual ZORI (metros with all twelve months only). D.C. and Puerto Rico have none.
- Income that moves: IRS Statistics of Income state-to-state migration files, 2011–12 through 2022–23, built from tax returns. The IRS periods run through 2019–20 and 2020–21, which the Census survey skipped.
What one row is
One row is one origin state → destination state → survey year: the estimated number of people (movers) who lived in prior_state a year before the survey and in current_state when surveyed, with its 90% margin of error (moe), both states' Census regions, and both states' home value index that year.
The table has 50,109 rows, 9 columns, 19 years and 52 places (50 states, D.C., Puerto Rico).
Rows I drop or leave out, and why
- Same-state rows (people who moved within a state): this report is about moves between states.
- Suppressed or not-applicable cells (marked N or X in the Census tables): they have no estimate to report.
- Non-state rows (such as national and regional totals): they would double-count the state rows.
- Missing home values: Zillow publishes no state index for Puerto Rico, and none for North Dakota before 2009. Those 2,314 rows (4.6%) stay in every migration count but are left out of every home-value figure.
- Other gaps: Puerto Rico has no income or price-parity data and no population estimate for 2005–2009, so it is left out of those figures. In the IRS files I drop the rows for moves from abroad, the national totals, and people who did not move.
How each number is computed
- Total movers = sum of
movers. The yearly average is that total divided by 19 survey years. - Net migration of a state or region = movers arriving minus movers leaving, summed over the years shown. Regional charts cover the four Census regions, so they leave out Puerto Rico.
- Total over 2020–2024 (Stop 3) is a sum over the four survey years in that window, not a per-year average.
- Share moving to a cheaper state = movers whose destination index is below their origin's ÷ all movers with both indexes, × 100.
- Home value gap = destination index − origin index. The movers-weighted gap is Σ(gap × movers) ÷ Σ(movers), so a route with more movers counts for more.
- Home value change = (2024 index − 2005 index) ÷ 2005 index, × 100, per state.
- Median destination home value (dashboard) is the median over records in view; each record counts once, whatever its mover count.
- Net migration per 1,000 residents = 1,000 × (movers in − movers out) ÷ population, where population is the July 1 estimate of each year counted, and the figure is an annual average over the window.
- Inflation-adjusted dollars multiply each year's amount by CPI-U(2024) ÷ CPI-U(that year). A year's own gap is scaled by one factor, so it stays the movers-weighted gap.
- Price-parity share is computed like the home-value share, using the all-items Regional Price Parity instead of home value.
- Price-to-income ratio = state home value ÷ state median household income. “Typical state” is the median across the states (and D.C.) that have both; the movers-weighted version weights each route's ratios by movers.
- Monthly mortgage payment = principal and interest on a 30-year fixed loan for 80% of the state's home value, at that year's average Freddie Mac rate. It leaves out taxes, insurance and fees.
- IRS income is adjusted gross income (AGI) on the returns of people who changed states; net AGI = AGI arriving minus AGI leaving. “Average return” = total AGI ÷ number of returns.
Caveats
These are survey estimates, not a census of moves. Each route-year carries a 90% margin of error, and for 89% of them it is larger than 30% of the estimate. Those noisy routes are small, though: together they hold 42% of all movers. So every finding above rests on state, region and year totals, which are far more stable than any single route, and the one route I cite (California to Texas, margin of error 12% of its estimate) is well measured. The dashboard's “Reliable routes only” filter hides the noisy ones, and marks them in gray or faded wherever they appear. Home values are state averages and say nothing about the neighborhoods people actually move between. This report shows association, not cause.
The 2024 Census table also suppresses 279 small routes (marked N) that earlier years report. They held about 71,000 movers in 2023, roughly 1% of the total, so 2024 is very slightly light. On a like-for-like basis (only routes reported in both years), movers fell 4.8% from 2023 to 2024; the drop is real.
A few source quirks: the Census tables show very large outflows from Alaska in 2008–2014 (72,000 to 100,000 a year, against 33,000 to 50,000 from 2015 on), which I report as published; the Census income table lists two columns for 2013 and for 2017 (footnoted changes in how income was collected or processed), and I use the first-listed column of each; the IRS's 2014–15 period counts far fewer movers (4.5 million people) than its neighbors (about 6.3 to 6.6 million), so I avoid leaning on it; and the population vintages are not perfectly continuous where they join, in 2010 and 2020.